Weekly market update 22-11-2024
22 November 2024 | Blog Against a backdrop of geopolitical risk and noise, high valuations for shares and an eroding equity risk premium, there is positive momentum underpinning sharemarkets for now including the “goldilocks” economic backdrop, the global bank central cutting cycle, positive earnings growth and expectations of US fiscal spending. Read more
Oliver's insights - Trump challenges and constraints
19 November 2024 | Blog Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared with Donald Trump's US election victory. Read more
Econosights - strong employment against weak GDP growth
18 November 2024 | Blog The persistent strength in the Australian labour market has occurred against a backdrop of poor GDP growth, which is unusual. We go through this issue in this edition of Econosights. Read more
Weekly market update 15-11-2024
15 November 2024 | Blog Global share markets were messy over the last week, not helped by the ongoing rise in bond yields and a wind back in Fed rate cut expectations after some elevated US inflation data and slightly hawkish comments from Fed chair Powell. Read more
Oliver's insights - staying focused as an investor
12 November 2024 | Blog Dr Shane Oliver suggests five ways to help manage the noise and stay focussed as an investor with the changes in the macro enviroment. Read more
Weekly market update 08-11-2024
08 November 2024 | Blog It was all about the US Presidential election this week. Despite concerns that the election outcome would be extremely close, the Republican victory was stronger than the polls and betting markets were suggesting into the lead up. Read more
Oliver's insights - elected President of the US
07 November 2024 | Blog The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. Read more
Weekly market update 01-11-2024
01 November 2024 | Blog Global shares markets remained under pressure over the last week from bonds; US election implications; Australian inflation falls but still too high; RBA to hold but forecasted to soften slightly; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - valuation in investing
29 October 2024 | Blog This edition looks at why the concept of value or valuations are important in investing and what they are telling us now - particularly in relation to shares. Read more
Weekly market update 25-10-2024
25 October 2024 | Blog Rising bond yields threaten shares; US tech share nearly at 2000 levels; is Australia really that bad on inflation?; Trump and share markets; Australian underlying inflation to fall; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - ineffective investors
22 October 2024 | Blog In the confusing and often seemingly illogical world of investing, investors often make various mistakes that keep them from reaching their financial goals. This note takes a look at the nine most common mistakes. Read more
Econosights - global housing trends
22 October 2024 | Blog The common belief that Australian homes have become unaffordable is understandable, as all the metrics around affordability have deteriorated. But how does the housing situation in Australia compare to our global peers? We go through this issue in this edition of Econosights. Read more
Weekly market update 18-10-2024
18 October 2024 | Blog Down down for global inflation and rates; soft Chinese data but better than feared; strong Australian jobs and the RBA; US earnings results; time for another baby bonus?; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - China's big stimulus
16 October 2024 | Blog This week's edition looks at China’s pivot from incremental and modest policy stimulus to providing more aggressive support for its economy. Read more
Weekly market update 11-10-2024
11 October 2024 | Blog Israel/Iran scenarios & oil prices; US disinflation & rate cuts still on track; Trump prospects rising; Aust confidence up; Cold Play improved. Read more
Oliver's insights - Harris versus Trump
09 October 2024 | Blog The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. Read more
Weekly market update 04-10-2024
04 October 2024 | Blog Investors are on edge waiting to see what happens next in the Israel/Iran conflict with impacts such as oil prices; good news on global inflation; mixed results on Australian economic data; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - inflation in retreat
02 October 2024 | Blog Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. Read more
Econosights - Australia's growing public sector
01 October 2024 | Blog The June quarter national accounts data showed that government spending has been rising as a share of the Australian economy and has reached a record high of just under 28% of GDP (see the chart below). We look at the implications of a bigger government in this edition of Econosights. Read more
Weekly market update 27-09-2024
27 September 2024 | Blog Central bank rate cuts and China pivots to a "whatever it takes" policy stimulus which are a big positive for shares; lower petrol prices; falling underlying inflation in Australia meaning RBA could cut by year end; and more. Read more
Econosights - indicators of consumer mortgage stress
23 September 2024 | Blog Despite Australian households’ vulnerability to rising interest rates because of high household debt and borrowing through variable and/or short-term fixed mortgage rates, households have managed to deal with higher mortgage repayments without a broad-based increase in debt servicing problems (for now at least). We look at this issue in this Econosights. Read more
Weekly market update 20-09-2024
20 September 2024 | Blog Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina observes that shares were up after Fed's first cut for cycle, economic data holding up consistent with "soft" rather than "hard" landing, Democrat momentum still up, risks to shares to the downside given seasonality and geopolitical issues. Read more
Aussie jobs market still very resilient
19 September 2024 | Blog Employment growth in Australia surprised to the upside for the 5th consecutive month, rising by 47.5k over the month of August – almost double the 26k figure predicted by economists. The Read more
Weekly market update 13-09-2024
13 September 2024 | Blog US debate leaves Harris "victorious" (for now), US inflation data leaves Fed on track to cut next week, Aust Govt vs RBA tensions continue. Read more
Weekly market update 06-09-2024
06 September 2024 | Blog Shares down over the week; US data shows slowing but not collapsing activity; Australian per capita recession continues but RBA giving more weight to inflation risks; and more. Read more
Weekly market update 30-08-2024
30 August 2024 | Blog Dr Shane Oliver observes that shares had a great comeback in August, but near term risks remain high; July Australian inflation = no hike but no imminent cut; tax cut saved so far; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - house price crash calls
27 August 2024 | Blog Apart from “what will home prices do?" and "where are the best places to buy a property?" the main debate around the Australian housing market has been about poor housing affordability, occasionally interspersed with a scare that home prices will crash. Read more
Weekly market update 23-08-2024
23 August 2024 | Blog This weekly market update covers the oncoming signals from Fed at Jackson Hole; payrolls revision is not a big deal in the context of other labour market data; RBA still pushing back on rate cut views; Kamala Harris momentum fading; and more. Read more
Oliver's insights - super for the long term
20 August 2024 | Blog This week we take a look at why shares and other growth assets really are long term investments. In other words, its not just marketing spin to be wheeled out after sharp falls in share markets like we saw two weeks ago. Read more
Weekly market update 16-08-2024
16 August 2024 | Blog Dr Shane Oliver recounts over the last week, share markets have continued their recovery; a third of central banks now cutting rates; Australian jobs and wages data support RBA on hold; and more. Read moreSubscribe to our newsletter
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